Fire SuitedTier 1
at Mox DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.3% | +17.6 |
| Water Genbu | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Astra Diana | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sleight of Hand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Two of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guandu, Theater of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |